Will Russia Take ‘Yes’ for an Answer?
When Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel announced this month that the
Pentagon would increase the number of missile interceptors in Alaska, he
noted that the U.S. missile defense program in Europe would be
restructured. This means cancellation of Phase 4 of the plan, which
called for the deployment of upgraded interceptors in Eastern Europe.
The decision could open the way for resolving U.S.-Russian differences
over missile defense, one of the thorniest problems on the bilateral
agenda, and remove an obstacle to further nuclear arms reductions — if
Moscow can say something other than “nyet.”
The initial Russian reaction gave little ground for optimism. But
Russian officials often react slowly to new ideas, so we may not yet
have the final word.
The Obama administration unveiled its “European Phased Adaptive
Approach” in 2009 with the goal of deploying increasingly capable SM-3
missile interceptors in anticipation that Iran would develop missiles
with increasingly longer ranges. Moscow initially appeared to welcome
the approach.
In November 2010, NATO and Russia agreed to explore a cooperative
missile defense for Europe. Talks between U.S. and Russian officials in
early 2011 yielded significant convergence on questions such as
transparency, joint exercises and jointly manned NATO-Russia centers to
share early warning data and plan how NATO and Russia missile defense
systems would work together.
The dialogue stalled, however, as Russian officials began to complain
more vociferously about Phase 4 of the plan, originally scheduled for
2020, when the SM-3 IIB interceptor would achieve the capability to
engage intercontinental ballistic missiles.